Which logical fallacy involves assuming a successful program will naturally lead to beneficial outcomes without sufficient evidence?

The logical fallacy that involves assuming a successful program will naturally lead to beneficial outcomes without sufficient evidence is composition. This fallacy arises when one assumes that what is true for individual parts or instances must also be true for the whole. In the context of a program, this means taking the success of individual components or aspects of the program and generalizing that success to the entire program as a whole. It overlooks the possibility that while parts may thrive, the entire system may not function as effectively, resulting in misguided beliefs about guaranteed positive outcomes based solely on isolated successes.

Understanding this fallacy highlights the importance of examining the actual evidence and performance of the entire program rather than jumping to conclusions based on selective success stories or partial data. This critical thinking approach prevents overgeneralization and encourages a thorough evaluation of program effectiveness, thereby leading to more informed decision-making.