Which fallacy suggests that because all three Baltic states were former Soviet republics, they will all succeed as independent nations?

The fallacy in question is indeed a hasty generalization. This reasoning assumes that because all three Baltic states have a shared historical experience as former Soviet republics, they will all similarly flourish as independent nations. This line of thinking neglects to consider the unique circumstances, political environments, and development trajectories of each of these states.

Hasty generalization occurs when a conclusion is drawn from an insufficient or non-representative set of data. In this example, while there may be some similarities among the three countries, such as their backgrounds and geographical proximity, it does not guarantee that they will follow the same path of success or development. Each state could have different economic challenges, governance structures, or social dynamics that impact their independence and growth differently.

Recognizing this fallacy helps in understanding the importance of evaluating each situation on its own merits rather than making broad assumptions based solely on historical commonalities.