When someone assumes the outcome of a team based on a single match performance, which reasoning mistake are they making?

The reasoning mistake being referenced involves making an assumption about a team's overall capabilities or potential based on a singular event, which reflects a specific cognitive bias in interpreting evidence. The correct choice emphasizes the error of using isolated cases as representative of broader trends. When one views only a specific performance—such as a single game—to judge a team's overall skill level, they are cherry-picking that instance and failing to consider the totality of evidence and performance over time.

This approach can be misleading, as it ignores the possibility of variability in a team's performance under different conditions or against various opponents. By overly focusing on that one observed instance, the individual overlooks additional context, such as previous matches, the strength of the opposition, or even external factors that might have influenced performance on that one occasion. Thus, the reasoning mistake illustrated is a classic example of relying on selected instances without incorporating a comprehensive view.