What flaw is present when expecting academic success based on recent past achievements without considering other factors?

The flaw of expecting academic success solely based on recent past achievements without taking into account other relevant factors is indicative of a Post Hoc reasoning fallacy. This fallacy arises from the assumption that because one event follows another, the first event must be the cause of the second. In this context, recent achievements are viewed as direct predictors of future success, ignoring other elements such as changing circumstances, varying difficulties of tasks, or shifts in motivation and effort.

By relying solely on prior successes without acknowledging these external factors, one potentially overlooks the complexity of academic performance. Factors such as increased competition, changes in study habits, or even external life events can greatly impact future outcomes and should be considered to avoid misleading conclusions about future success based solely on past performance.