What does the commentator predict about the Soviet Union's future?

The prediction that the Soviet Union will break apart into independent nations is rooted in the historical context of the late 20th century, particularly the political, social, and economic turmoil experienced within the region. As the Soviet Union faced mounting challenges, including nationalistic movements among various ethnic groups, a faltering economy, and increasing calls for reform, many analysts observed that these factors were conducive to disintegration rather than unity.

The rise of nationalist sentiments within the diverse republics of the Soviet Union indicated a strong desire for sovereignty, which, combined with the weakening grip of the central government, suggested a considerable likelihood that the union would not survive in its previous form. This outlook was consistent with events leading up to the eventual dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, when several republics declared independence, reinforcing the idea that fragmentation along national lines was a plausible future scenario. The prediction encapsulates the broader understanding of the regional dynamics during that period, where growing independence movements and dissatisfaction with central authority resulted in the breakdown of a once-integrated state.